科技公開市場的四個趨勢

過去30年來，科技業歷經蓬勃發展、低潮、又再度崛起；1980年，全球科技業者的市值估計約為500億美元，占全球上市企業市值的1.7%；十多年過去了，科技業者市值成長超過三倍，達1,760億美元；接著進入快速成長階段，十年內成長140%，2000年達8兆美元市值，此刻的高峰，科技業者約占全球市值的四分之一；不過在接下來的三年內，科技業市值又掉了63%，只剩下3兆美元；今日，科技業市值為7兆美元，約占全球市值的14.7%。

Chart 1: It’s been a wild ride

Over the past 30 years, technology companies have boomed, busted and boomed again. In 1980, the global market cap of technology companies totaled $50B, 1.7% of all global equities. Ten years later, tech market caps tripled to $176B. Then, technology companies entered hyper-growth, registering 140% annual growth rates for ten years surpassing $8T in global market cap in 2000. At its zenith, IT companies represented one-fourth of all equity value in the world – pure euphoria. At its post-2000 nadir three short years later, technology market caps deflated 63% to $3T. Today, the sector has settled: technology equity is worth $7T and represents 14.7% of the total global market cap. [1]

2. 科技業的市場力量已分散

1990年，科技業可說是寡占市場，全球十大科技公司占據80%的科技業市值；2000年，網路發展的爆炸時代，隨著IPO熱潮將這個數字降到只剩5%；2012年，前十大科技業者市值分去30%的市場，科技產業正處於一個健康又具競爭力的階段。

Chart 2: The technology market has fragmented

In 1990, technology oligarchs controlled the industry. The largest 10 IT companies represented over 80% of the value of the entire IT sector. In 2000, at the height of the boom, that figure dropped to 5% due to the overzealous IPO glut. In 2012 the top 10 companies’ share rebounded to 30% of total IT market cap, marking a healthy and competitive industry. [2]

3. 2000年市值最高的科技業者，超越了今日的蘋果

2000年，微軟市值高達6,400億美元，比今日蘋果的5,650億美元還要高出許多；同時間，Docomo和思科的市值也都達到3,600億美元，相當於蘋果今年一月的市值，並擊敗位居第二名的微軟；今日科技業者平均本益比為17，科技巨頭們只能遙想多年前的夢幻70本益比、卻伴隨著網路泡沫化消失無蹤而默默流淚了。

Chart 3: The largest IT market cap in 2000 exceeded Apple’s market cap today

At its peak Microsoft’s market cap eclipsed $640B in 2000, 14% larger than Apple’s current value $565B. Simultaneously, Docomo and Cisco each amassed market capitalizations of $360B, which equalled Apple’s market cap in January 2012 and bested the second largest tech company, Microsoft, by 65%. Today’s tech industry has its share of titans, but at an average 17 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, these giant’s valuations fall within the current market norms and are a distant cry from the 70 P/E characterizing the bubble. [2] [3] [5]

4. 科技業法則：十年一變

1990年，這是電信商與電腦製造業者的黃金時代，霸占科技業十大排行榜，最大的藍色巨人IBM市值占前十大業者總合的35%，前四名的科技業者更占去75%市值，軟體商微軟首次擠進前十名。

Chart 4: The constitution of the technology industry changes every 10 years

In 1990, telcos and computer makers dominated the ten largest companies. IBM represented more than 35% of the sum of the top 10 market caps and the top 4 companies exceed 75% share. Software maker Microsoft appeared in the top 10 for the first time. NB: Verizon was then known as GTE, the entity at the time.

2000年，軟體業者將硬體業者擠下，這一切都要歸功於IT預算的爆炸式成長，微軟打敗IBM，企業資料庫的時興讓Oracle也在此時崛起；電信業者仍是常勝軍，網路設備業者靠著到處架設基礎設備也分得一杯羹。

In 2000, software dethroned hardware as market leaders. Growth in IT spending fueled this boom as enterprises clamored to install new technology stacks. Microsoft surpassed IBM, who fell off the top 10 list. Oracle trailed closely, growing with the demand for enterprise databases. Networking and telecom remained at the table as PC sales boomed as telcos deployed the networking infrastructure to interconnect millions of terminals.

2012年，「行動」成為科技代名詞，三星和蘋果於是脫穎而出；行動營運商也成為最受惠者，像是ATT、Verizon、中國移動和Vodafone；軟體服務重新振作，IBM、微軟和Oracle憑藉企業服務軟體繼續保持優勢；Google則是唯一以純網路服務擠進排行榜的參賽者。

In 2012, mobile became the zeitgeist. Samsung and Apple rocketed to the fore. Mobile carriers form the largest bloc comprising ATT, Verizon, China Mobile and Vodafone. A reinvigorated, software-services-focused IBM joined Microsoft and Oracle representing enterprise software. Google cracked into the rankings as the sole entrant embodying pure Internet. [2]

看完每一個十年的優勝者，微軟和英特爾是唯二常勝軍，科技業者的更迭驗證了這個產業必須持續不鬆懈地追求創新技術。

Through it all, Microsoft and Intel are the only companies present the top 10 market caps each decade, a testament to technology’s relentless pursuit of invention and innovation.

Vertical Capital Updraft

The technology sector has never been better diversified, providing a huge vertical updraft of acquisition capital. The top 10 IT companies’ cash current positions of $250B are 18 times greater than the total value of annual venture backed M&A transactions (approximately $17B annually), presenting a lush environment for startups to thrive. [2, 4]

Sources:

[1] CapitalIQ research for technology sector data. IMF and US Census for global market cap figures, 2010.

[2] CapitalIQ research, 2012.

[3] Yahoo Finance, 2012.

[4] National Venture Capital Association, 2011.

[5] Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco analysis of S&P technology stocks, 2001.

出自TechCrunch