Faced with an increasingly uncertain world, there are some things every organisation needs to know if it is to survive and succeed. Here are my ten top tips:
面對一個愈來愈不確定的世界,有些事情,是所有想要繼續生存及成功的組織所必須瞭解的,以下是我認為排名前十名的事:

Know your goals. When times are uncertain you need to know where you’re heading. This includes strategic vision as well as tactical objectives, with both long-term and short-term goals. Ensure goal congruence and alignment to focus your efforts on what matters.
瞭解你的目標。當時間是不確定的,你必須知道你的方向,這包括策略願景與戰術目標,以及長期與短期目標。確保目標是一致的且能將資源調整聚焦在有關的事情上。

Know your market. Don’t assume you know what your customers might want – find out. Market intelligence is vital in identifying trends and opportunities that you can exploit. Reducing market uncertainty prevents wasted effort and optimises effectiveness.
瞭解你的市場。不要假定你的顧客可能想要什麼—要找出他們要什麼。市場情報對辨識趨勢及你可以開發的機會而言是重要的,降低市場不確定性可以預防浪費資源並使效益最大化。

Know your business. Use the techniques of value management or business process mapping to review your processes, products and people. Then you can identify and focus on the winners, and maximise ROI by increasing efficiency.
瞭解你的企業。使用價值管理或企業流程地圖技術來檢視你的流程、產品、以及人員。然後你才能夠辨識及專注於贏家,並且以提高效率來達到最佳投資報酬率。

Know your environment. Be sure you understand the world in which you operate, including political, economic, social, technical, regulatory and legal factors that might affect you. Conduct an environmental scan to identify and challenge constraints.
瞭解你的環境。確定你瞭解你營運所在的世界,包括會影響你的政治、經濟、社會、技術、規範及法律因素。執行環境檢查以辨識並挑戰限制。

Know yourself. Assess your organisational culture and attitudes, identify your strengths and weaknesses, and determine your risk appetite and thresholds. These have a significant influence on how you respond to uncertainty.
瞭解你自己。評估你的組織文化與態度,辨識你的優點與缺點,並決定你的風險偏好與門檻,這些對你如何回應不確定性有重大影響。

Know your friends. Create and strengthen partnerships with stakeholders who can provide support and stability in uncertain times, especially with your supply chain, key contractors, strategic partners and major clients.
瞭解你的朋友。與在不確定時可以給你支持與穩定的利害關係人建立並強化伙伴關係,尤其是你的供應鏈、關鍵包商、策略伙伴、以及主要客戶。

Know your enemies. Understanding the goals and strategies of competitors keeps you focused on your own business. Seek to respond rather than react, setting the pace of competition on your own terms, and keeping one step ahead of the rest. Lead the pack.
瞭解你的敵人。瞭解競爭對手的目標及策略會促使你專注於你自己的事業上,尋求回應而非被動反應、用你的方式定義競爭路徑、並且保持比別人領先一步。保持在領先族群。

Know your options. Uncertainty always creates alternatives. Conduct a strategic opportunity review to identify possible ways ahead, select your preferred route forward, identify early-warning signs to indicate possible deviation, and develop contingency plans to keep you on track.

瞭解你的選項。不確定幸通常會產生不同方案,執行策略性機會審查以辨識未來的可能方向、選擇你偏好的前進途徑、辨識先期預警徵兆以指出可能的偏差、以及發展使你保持既定方向的應變計畫。

Know what you know. Perform a knowledge audit to define the intellectual capital in the organisation, ensuring that lessons are identified and learned from previous experience in order to reduce the effect of uncertainty on future operations. 

瞭解哪些是你瞭解的。執行知識審查以定義組織內的智慧資產,確保有從過去經驗中記取並學習教訓,以降低不確定性對未來營運的影響。

Know what you don’t know. Scope your uncertainty to define your areas of maximum risk exposure. Then assess and prioritise both threats and opportunities, taking proactive steps to minimise the downside and maximise upside exposure. Develop a risk-aware culture from board room to shop floor, allowing you to take the right risks intelligently and safely.

瞭解哪些是你不瞭解的。界定不確定性的範圍以定義你最大風險暴露的區域,然後評估機會及威脅並訂出其優先等級,採取主動的步驟以獲取最大好處及最少壞處。發展從董事會到生產線的風險意識文化,可以讓你明智且安全地承擔風險。

Uncertainty poses a clear threat to business, but it also contains significant opportunity. Sources of uncertainty must be understood so that the resulting risks can be effectively managed. In the current uncertain business climate, now is the right time for businesses to assess the risks – not only to be aware of the threats but also to see what opportunities they might bring.

不確定性對企業有明顯的威脅,但是他也包含顯著的機會。一定要瞭解不確定的來源才能有效管理風險,在目前不確定的企業氛圍之下,正是企業評估風險的好時機—不僅只是認知到威脅,同時也要看到其所帶來的機會。

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© April 2010, Dr David Hillson PMI Fellow, HonFAPM david@risk-doctor.com

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